Khamenei warns of retaliation

Here are the latest key developments regarding U.S.–Iran relations:

🕊️ Ceasefire & Military Tensions

Khamenei warns of retaliation
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei stated that if the U.S. attacks Iran again, Tehran will strike American military bases in the Middle East—a forceful stance following the recent ceasefire after Iran’s missile strike on a U.S. base in Qatar (theguardian.com, reuters.com).
U.S. claims significant damage to Iran’s nuclear sites
Pentagon briefings assert the June 22 strikes—including precision bunker-busters—dealt serious blows to Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Officials claim Fordo and Natanz were severely impacted, although U.S. intelligence later noted Iran's nuclear program may only be delayed by months (apnews.com).
Iran pushes back on U.S. narrative
Khamenei dismissed the success of U.S. strikes, and Iranian parliament approved measures to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), signaling a formal shift away from international nuclear oversight (theguardian.com).

Sixth round of indirect nuclear talks in Muscat
As of June 15, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi met in Oman under Omani mediation. Talks were described as “difficult but potentially useful”—though recent military escalation may have stalled progress (intellinews.com, intellinews.com).
Earlier rounds made “some forward progress”
Through April and May, five rounds of indirect discussions occurred between Oman, Rome, and Muscat. Outcomes were mixed, with Iran stressing that “zero enrichment” is non-negotiable (timesofisrael.com, argusmedia.com).

U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil and military-industrial networks
Starting February 2025, the Trump administration reinstated "maximum pressure" sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, IRGC-linked firms, and nuclear/ballistic programs. Sanctions intensified in June, targeting multiple entities in Iran, the UAE, and Hong Kong (en.wikipedia.org).

Threat to close the Strait of Hormuz
In response to U.S. strikes, the Iranian parliament voted (pending final approval) to potentially close the Strait—a critical oil chokepoint governing over 20% of global seaborne oil flows, causing temporary disruptions in shipping rates (en.wikipedia.org).
Oil & stock markets respond
Oil prices fell around 3% on June 24 as the Israel‑Iran ceasefire calmed markets. U.S. futures rose despite ongoing uncertainty over Iran’s next move (markets.businessinsider.com).

Dimension	Status
Military	Ceasefire with Israel; U.S.–Iran tensions high. Iran warns of retaliation; U.S. claims nuclear strike success.
Diplomacy	Six rounds of indirect talks so far; progress modest and overshadowed by military events.
Sanctions	“Maximum pressure” campaign remains active; recent sanctions broaden scope.
Strategic Risk	Strait closure threat looms, with global market implications.

Tension remains high, with diplomatic efforts ongoing but fragile.
Iran’s posture hardens: nuclear oversight paused, enrichment demands upheld.
Markets and geopolitics fluctuate with military signals—oil prices shifted, and global oil security is threatened.

Let me know if you’d like a deeper dive into any of these topics—from the Strait of Hormuz dynamics to specific sanctions or negotiation rounds.